The Cleveland Cavaliers traded Delonte West and Sebastian Telfair to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Ramon Sessions, Ryan Hollins, and a future second-round pick. Cleveland was motivated by wanting to get rid of West and to add depth, and the Wolves were motivated by wanting to more ecomonically trim their roster.
During the 2008-09 season (towards the end), Sessions showed that he was capable of putting up substantial fantasy numbers, particularly in the points and assist categories. In Cleveland, he should at least be given a chance to show he still has that potential. While he is projected to backup Mo Williams, the Cavs are weak at shooting guard (Parker and Gibson), so he may be on the court at the same time as Williams. A liability of Sessions is that he does not hit the three point shot. I currently have Sessions ranked 214 in nine category roto leagues and 164 in five category fantasy points leagues.
Hollins should also have a higher position on the Cavs depth chart than he would have had with the Wolves. He is an athletic big man who has the potential contribute points and blocks. His rebounding needs improvement and Cleveland will be his fourth team in four seasons - so this may be his last chance to show he belongs in a rotation. The opportunity is there with the Cavs as they also lost Ilgauskas and are not expected to bring Shaq back. I currently have Hollins ranked 215 in nine category roto leagues and 173 in five category fantasy points leagues.
West and Telfair are not considered part of the Wolves future. This trade along with the hip injury to Jonny Flynn will actually give some early season sleeper value to Luke Ridnour. He is coming off a surprising season where he blew away his personal best in shooting percentage at 47.8%. He can hit the trey and has a good A/TO ratio. I currently have Ridnour ranked 95 in nine category roto leagues and 115 in five category fantasy points leagues.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Saturday, July 10, 2010
LeBron Signs With the Heat
In order to assess the impact on the fantasy values of Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh as a result of LeBron signing in Miami, it is helpful to recall what happened to Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett after the three came together in Boston for the 2007-08 season. The table below is an analysis of the scoring of the Celtic players before and after they signed to play together.
___________2006-07 (before)_______2007-08 (after)
.............................MPG PPG PPMin............MPG PPG PPMin.......Tot PPG Decrease
Paul Pierce.........37.00 25.0 0.68...............35.88 19.6 0.55.......... -22%
Ray Allen............40.28 26.4 0.66...............35.88 17.4 0.48.......... -34%
Kevin Garnett.....39.38 22.4 0.57................32.78 18.8 0.57.......... -16%
It should be noted that all three realized a decrease in playing time. This was partly due to the Celtics winning a lot of games during the 2007-08 season and being in a position to rest their stars for the playoffs.
All three of the players saw a total decrease in their per game scoring output as shown in the far right column above. All but Kevin Garnett saw decreases in their per minute output.
All three Celtic players had averaged over 20 PPG the season before they joined with the Celtics and less than 20 PPG after they became Celtics. Will the Heat trio also average less than 20 PPG next season? If so, their fantasy value will decrease.
The potential drop in fantasy value for James, Wade, and Bosh will be a function of how many blowout games they are in next season. Most think that will be quite a few.
It is worth noting that the Celtics were across the board older than the new Miami trio, and perhaps more in need of additional rest. However the Miami trio will not be able to score at the same rate as the season before when they were all clearly their teams #1 option.
Before LeBron's Decision, he was the number one fantasy player. Afterwards, adjustments to his projections have him dropped from number one in most formats. A good candidate to become number one is Kevin Durant.
___________2006-07 (before)_______2007-08 (after)
.............................MPG PPG PPMin............MPG PPG PPMin.......Tot PPG Decrease
Paul Pierce.........37.00 25.0 0.68...............35.88 19.6 0.55.......... -22%
Ray Allen............40.28 26.4 0.66...............35.88 17.4 0.48.......... -34%
Kevin Garnett.....39.38 22.4 0.57................32.78 18.8 0.57.......... -16%
It should be noted that all three realized a decrease in playing time. This was partly due to the Celtics winning a lot of games during the 2007-08 season and being in a position to rest their stars for the playoffs.
All three of the players saw a total decrease in their per game scoring output as shown in the far right column above. All but Kevin Garnett saw decreases in their per minute output.
All three Celtic players had averaged over 20 PPG the season before they joined with the Celtics and less than 20 PPG after they became Celtics. Will the Heat trio also average less than 20 PPG next season? If so, their fantasy value will decrease.
The potential drop in fantasy value for James, Wade, and Bosh will be a function of how many blowout games they are in next season. Most think that will be quite a few.
It is worth noting that the Celtics were across the board older than the new Miami trio, and perhaps more in need of additional rest. However the Miami trio will not be able to score at the same rate as the season before when they were all clearly their teams #1 option.
Before LeBron's Decision, he was the number one fantasy player. Afterwards, adjustments to his projections have him dropped from number one in most formats. A good candidate to become number one is Kevin Durant.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Chris Duhon Signs with the Magic
Chris Duhon has reached an agreement for a $15 million, four-year contract with the Orlando Magic. This deal will take away any potential upside he would have had as a starter with New York, or another team that had that spot available. In Orlando his role will be defined - back up Jameer Nelson. As a result of this I have lowered his minute projections and he now ranks 257 in a nine category roto league and 265 in a five category fantasy points league.
His upside now will be in the event of Jameer Nelson getting hurt- something which has happened though during the past two seasons. A shoulder tear sidelined Nelson for most of the 2009 season, and torn cartilage in his knee sidelined him for about two months last season.
If playing, Duhon should be able to contribute some assists, particularly playing with Dwight Howard, but he can be expected to continue his long standing shooting slump - 39.3% for his career.
His upside now will be in the event of Jameer Nelson getting hurt- something which has happened though during the past two seasons. A shoulder tear sidelined Nelson for most of the 2009 season, and torn cartilage in his knee sidelined him for about two months last season.
If playing, Duhon should be able to contribute some assists, particularly playing with Dwight Howard, but he can be expected to continue his long standing shooting slump - 39.3% for his career.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Frye and Warrick sign with the Suns - Stoudemire leaves
Phoenix has reached a 5 year, $30 million contract agreement with Channing Frye and a 4 year, $18 million contract agreement with Hakim Warrick. With these signings it became apparent that Amare Stoudemire would not be returning to the the Suns. The Suns probably would have prefered Amare to the two free agents they signed, but they certainly did not over pay by the standards that had already been set for free agents.
In Frye's first four seasons he made a total of 20 three point shots. In his fifth season he made a total of 172 treys playing with Steve Nash and the Suns. In his first four seasons he scored progressively fewer points but in his first season with the Suns he averaged 11.2 points, nearly triple his average from the year before. Earlier in the season, Frye was seeing more minutes but then it tapered back as the Suns felt they needed more rebounding toughness and gave Robin Lopez more minutes. With Stoudemire gone there will be an opportunity for Frye to log more minutes at power forward alongside Lopez, but he has some downside if the Suns once again feel they need more rebounds from the PF slot. Currently I have Frye projected in nine cateogry roto leagues to be ranked 91st and in five category fantasy points leagues (1 point each) 141st. Earl Clark may eventually compete for playing time with Frye, but he has not shown too much potential yet.
Lopez will be entering his third NBA season. He played nearly twice as much in his second season compared to the first. The Suns really liked his ability to rebound and block shots, but an injury slowed him down at the end of the season and caused him to miss many early playoff games. Next season he should clearly be the number one center for the Suns and could be in line for some big minutes. Currently I have Lopez projected in nine cateogry roto leagues to be ranked 98th and in five category fantasy points leagues (1 point each) 102nd.
Over his five NBA seasons Hakim Warrick has averaged only 21.5 mpg despite, for the most part, playing on bad teams. Going to Pheonix there is a real opportunity for him to play in a system that better suits his athletic style and make him a more efficient and valuable fantasy player. However with Grant Hill and Jared Dudley on the roster, it is probably best to take a wait and see approach with him. Currently I have Warrick projected in nine cateogry roto leagues to be ranked 190th and in five category fantasy points leagues (1 point each) ranked 140th.
In Frye's first four seasons he made a total of 20 three point shots. In his fifth season he made a total of 172 treys playing with Steve Nash and the Suns. In his first four seasons he scored progressively fewer points but in his first season with the Suns he averaged 11.2 points, nearly triple his average from the year before. Earlier in the season, Frye was seeing more minutes but then it tapered back as the Suns felt they needed more rebounding toughness and gave Robin Lopez more minutes. With Stoudemire gone there will be an opportunity for Frye to log more minutes at power forward alongside Lopez, but he has some downside if the Suns once again feel they need more rebounds from the PF slot. Currently I have Frye projected in nine cateogry roto leagues to be ranked 91st and in five category fantasy points leagues (1 point each) 141st. Earl Clark may eventually compete for playing time with Frye, but he has not shown too much potential yet.
Lopez will be entering his third NBA season. He played nearly twice as much in his second season compared to the first. The Suns really liked his ability to rebound and block shots, but an injury slowed him down at the end of the season and caused him to miss many early playoff games. Next season he should clearly be the number one center for the Suns and could be in line for some big minutes. Currently I have Lopez projected in nine cateogry roto leagues to be ranked 98th and in five category fantasy points leagues (1 point each) 102nd.
Over his five NBA seasons Hakim Warrick has averaged only 21.5 mpg despite, for the most part, playing on bad teams. Going to Pheonix there is a real opportunity for him to play in a system that better suits his athletic style and make him a more efficient and valuable fantasy player. However with Grant Hill and Jared Dudley on the roster, it is probably best to take a wait and see approach with him. Currently I have Warrick projected in nine cateogry roto leagues to be ranked 190th and in five category fantasy points leagues (1 point each) ranked 140th.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
The Bucks add Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden
While several teams have been shedding players to position themselves for free agency, the Bucks have made some additions. First they traded for Corey Maggette giving up seldom used Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell to Golden State. Magette has a reputation as a player who can score but who frequently gets hurt. Fantasy-wise his scoring and tendency to miss games makes him fools gold for inexperienced fantasy owners in roto leagues.
Since Maggette will play decent minutes when he is not hurt and the Bucks gave up non-rotation players, he will serve to muddle up the fantasy picture for the Bucks at small forward. Drew Gooden signed a 5-year $32 million dollar contract. The well traveled Gooden may stick around for awhile as not too many teams will likely want to take on this contract. The Bucks also signed free agent John Salmons, who played for them last year, to a 5-year $39 million dollar contract. Seems like the Bucks are really loading up this off season on average players.
As a result of these moves, the Bucks fantasy wise may have some congestion in certain postions. The two players most likely to get heavy minutes are Brandon Jennings (PG) and Andrew Bogut (C). As a young player, Jennings would be the most attractive. Bogut's injury history presents some risk for him.
Perhaps the next most desirable Bucks would be Salmons and then Gooden. Salmons did well in the Bucks system and they are paying him enough to not have him on the bench. Gooden seems to be one of the few Buck options at PF and would be needed to step up if Bogut got hurt again. Hopefully for his fantasy owners, he won't tick off another coach, but that is unlikely considering his history.
Lets not forget the Bucks most expensive player - Michael Redd. What to do with him contributes to the uncertainty of the Bucks rotation. They have numerous other players who could warrant some playing time including Magette, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard, and Carlos Delfino. Some fantasy owners in deep leagues might want to draft a number of the Buck SG/SF at the end and hope that someone emerges and then waive the others and go fishing again.
Since Maggette will play decent minutes when he is not hurt and the Bucks gave up non-rotation players, he will serve to muddle up the fantasy picture for the Bucks at small forward. Drew Gooden signed a 5-year $32 million dollar contract. The well traveled Gooden may stick around for awhile as not too many teams will likely want to take on this contract. The Bucks also signed free agent John Salmons, who played for them last year, to a 5-year $39 million dollar contract. Seems like the Bucks are really loading up this off season on average players.
As a result of these moves, the Bucks fantasy wise may have some congestion in certain postions. The two players most likely to get heavy minutes are Brandon Jennings (PG) and Andrew Bogut (C). As a young player, Jennings would be the most attractive. Bogut's injury history presents some risk for him.
Perhaps the next most desirable Bucks would be Salmons and then Gooden. Salmons did well in the Bucks system and they are paying him enough to not have him on the bench. Gooden seems to be one of the few Buck options at PF and would be needed to step up if Bogut got hurt again. Hopefully for his fantasy owners, he won't tick off another coach, but that is unlikely considering his history.
Lets not forget the Bucks most expensive player - Michael Redd. What to do with him contributes to the uncertainty of the Bucks rotation. They have numerous other players who could warrant some playing time including Magette, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard, and Carlos Delfino. Some fantasy owners in deep leagues might want to draft a number of the Buck SG/SF at the end and hope that someone emerges and then waive the others and go fishing again.
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