In order to assess the impact on the fantasy values of Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh as a result of LeBron signing in Miami, it is helpful to recall what happened to Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett after the three came together in Boston for the 2007-08 season. The table below is an analysis of the scoring of the Celtic players before and after they signed to play together.
___________2006-07 (before)_______2007-08 (after)
.............................MPG PPG PPMin............MPG PPG PPMin.......Tot PPG Decrease
Paul Pierce.........37.00 25.0 0.68...............35.88 19.6 0.55.......... -22%
Ray Allen............40.28 26.4 0.66...............35.88 17.4 0.48.......... -34%
Kevin Garnett.....39.38 22.4 0.57................32.78 18.8 0.57.......... -16%
It should be noted that all three realized a decrease in playing time. This was partly due to the Celtics winning a lot of games during the 2007-08 season and being in a position to rest their stars for the playoffs.
All three of the players saw a total decrease in their per game scoring output as shown in the far right column above. All but Kevin Garnett saw decreases in their per minute output.
All three Celtic players had averaged over 20 PPG the season before they joined with the Celtics and less than 20 PPG after they became Celtics. Will the Heat trio also average less than 20 PPG next season? If so, their fantasy value will decrease.
The potential drop in fantasy value for James, Wade, and Bosh will be a function of how many blowout games they are in next season. Most think that will be quite a few.
It is worth noting that the Celtics were across the board older than the new Miami trio, and perhaps more in need of additional rest. However the Miami trio will not be able to score at the same rate as the season before when they were all clearly their teams #1 option.
Before LeBron's Decision, he was the number one fantasy player. Afterwards, adjustments to his projections have him dropped from number one in most formats. A good candidate to become number one is Kevin Durant.
___________2006-07 (before)_______2007-08 (after)
.............................MPG PPG PPMin............MPG PPG PPMin.......Tot PPG Decrease
Paul Pierce.........37.00 25.0 0.68...............35.88 19.6 0.55.......... -22%
Ray Allen............40.28 26.4 0.66...............35.88 17.4 0.48.......... -34%
Kevin Garnett.....39.38 22.4 0.57................32.78 18.8 0.57.......... -16%
It should be noted that all three realized a decrease in playing time. This was partly due to the Celtics winning a lot of games during the 2007-08 season and being in a position to rest their stars for the playoffs.
All three of the players saw a total decrease in their per game scoring output as shown in the far right column above. All but Kevin Garnett saw decreases in their per minute output.
All three Celtic players had averaged over 20 PPG the season before they joined with the Celtics and less than 20 PPG after they became Celtics. Will the Heat trio also average less than 20 PPG next season? If so, their fantasy value will decrease.
The potential drop in fantasy value for James, Wade, and Bosh will be a function of how many blowout games they are in next season. Most think that will be quite a few.
It is worth noting that the Celtics were across the board older than the new Miami trio, and perhaps more in need of additional rest. However the Miami trio will not be able to score at the same rate as the season before when they were all clearly their teams #1 option.
Before LeBron's Decision, he was the number one fantasy player. Afterwards, adjustments to his projections have him dropped from number one in most formats. A good candidate to become number one is Kevin Durant.
